Matrixport: Markets Price in 84% Chance of Fed Rate Cut in December, Bitcoin Likely to Lag Gold in Near Term.

According to a recent analysis from PANews, Matrixport reports that markets are now pricing an 84% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut on December 10, based on federal funds futures. Looking ahead to January, futures imply a 65% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged. Even with the potential December cut, analysts expect overall monetary policy to remain only moderately accommodative, rather than signaling a full pivot.

Matrixport’s latest analysis reveals a fascinating divergence between gold and Bitcoin amidst shifting macro expectations. While markets anticipate a Federal Reserve rate cut, gold’s strong correlation with the U.S. fiscal deficit positions it as a direct hedge. Bitcoin, however, awaits new capital inflows to fuel its momentum, suggesting a persistent performance gap in the short term.

Matrixport’s report also highlights a key divergence between gold and Bitcoin as markets adjust to shifting macro expectations. Gold maintains a stronger correlation with the U.S. fiscal deficit and the pace of Treasury issuance — factors that position it as a more direct hedge against fiscal expansion and rate-cut expectations.

Bitcoin, by contrast, depends more heavily on new capital inflows to fuel upside momentum, and those inflows have not yet materialized at scale. As a result, Matrixport expects the performance gap between gold and Bitcoin to persist in the short term, despite widespread market anticipation of monetary easing.